Greetings Bull,
In your Jan 08 post you stated that you believed GRC to be significantly over valued.
I value your insight and analysis, so that post has had me a tad troubled... for a while.
I’ve viewed the updated GRC corporate presentation several times…
I like Bill R’s use of the MC/AOP (slides 25-27) as a indicator of all that the market “knows” or believes (mgmt, the range of various risk factors, psychology, etc) about the company.
The updated presentation compares GRC to a set of 4 current low cost producers (LCPs) who receive a premium for their au ounces produced… and shows that the avg MC/AOP or this LCP group is $6.7K/ounce (in the Jan 06 market where gold was @ about $500/oz)… I don’t know that I can agree with GRC obtaining that level of recognition in the market right away, but I do understand the general logic/comparison & math being presented.
Slide 27 shows that applying the $6.7K/ounce produced to GRC @ 100,000oz is $670M/35M shares = $19/share target.
Slide 27 also shows the avg MC/AOP for a mix of 34 high and low cost producers as $2.82K/ounce. So, applying that value to GRC is $282M/37M shares = $7.6/Share target. I used fully diluted per the presentation and rounded up to 37M shares.
Again, all of this uses the $500 gold & market climate of Jan 06.
So, if one was to use/focus on the avg premium of $2.82K/share shown in the presentation, then perhaps there is an argument for GRC’s share price being a tad ahead of itself.
However, the presentation would have most folks reasonably argue that the GRC program risk factors, the Reid brothers’ historical performance & GRC’s marked progress to date would push them into the upper half of the range… the middle of that $7.6/share to $19/share being $13.4/share.
In short, is your Jan 08 statement to mean that GRC’s share price is a tad ahead of itself, but as it goes to production it does have the right stuff and a share price in the teens is reasonable? Or is it to mean that there is something fundamentally wrong, incorrect, with the GRC program as a whole?
Also what are your thoughts on using the MC/AOP “tool” as another piece of the company evaluation pie? I like it, it seems to help level the playing field a bit, at least when comparing peer group companies.
I humbly request any elaboration you may have to offer.
Best Regards,