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 Blue Note Mining (BN.V)

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EarthMonkey



Number of posts : 169
Registration date : 2007-05-24

PostSubject: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:19 pm

Did anyone notice the surge of trade volume today? Is it a mild Miningpedia effect? It is amazing to watch the price got beat up so quickly today.

I took a quick look at the INK Research report, one of the insiders, Girard, Jean, tend to sell BN.V into strength or near the spike. He sold many shares in July. He now has only 6,750 shares remaining.

Lets hope the company wont grant him too many options again or he may sell them and depress the share price.

Jul 11/07 Girard, Jean Direct Ownership Disposition in the public market Common Shares 0.660 -100,000 -94% 6,750
Jul 09/07 Girard, Jean Direct Ownership Disposition in the public market Common Shares 0.700 -100,000 -94% 6,750
Jul 06/07 Girard, Jean Direct Ownership Disposition in the public market Common Shares 0.580 - 0.620 -218,000 -97% 6,750
Jul 05/07 Girard, Jean Direct Ownership Disposition in the public market Common Shares 0.520 -100,000 -94% 6,750

What a shame, does his selling action indicate his confidence level with the company?
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EarthMonkey



Number of posts : 169
Registration date : 2007-05-24

PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:22 pm

Passport Capital, Llc has 51,535,000 shares as of July 27, 2007
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studbkr



Number of posts : 902
Registration date : 2007-05-24

PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:18 pm

"slan" on the other Forum claims they are losing a ton of money, but I did not verify that. It would probably "leverage" well if Zn prices doubled or tripled, but I would be quite careful...share price has been flat for a long time, even from pre-production to production. I did not do DD recently, just my 2 centavos of unsolicited opinion!
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EarthMonkey



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PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:27 am

Thanks, studbrk!!

Mmm, base on the info entered in MP, BN.V should produce (per year):
Zn: 105,100,000 lbs
Pb: 57,800,000 lbs
Ag: 1,400,000 oz
Cu: 1,300,000 lbs
Au: 2,817 oz

The cash cost of 82 cents for Zinc (without the byproducts) is rather high. But then, they receive credits from Pb and Ag production. It looks to me that they will have to work real hard to make the business unprofitable. Anyway, I will study the details over the weekends.

I reduced the expected P/E for GGC existing producing projects (La Guitarra and San Rafael) from 15 to 4 base on the following info (should I expect an attack real soon? LOL!!):

"At the rated mill capacity of 340 tpd, current mine life is estimated to be 4.44 years."

May 16, 2007

Genco Reports Updated Reserve and Resource Estimate from La Guitarra Mine and the Temascaltepec Silver Gold District

Reserves and resources are reported as of December 31, 2006 in accordance with National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects.

http://www.gencoresources.com/2007%20Releases/May%2016%20%2707-%20Genco%20Reports%20Updated%20Reserve%20and%20Resource%20Estimate%20from%20La%20Guitarra%20Mine%20and%20the%20Temascaltepec%20Silver%20Gold%20District.pdf
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studbkr



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PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:15 am

EarthMonkey wrote:


I reduced the expected P/E for GGC existing producing projects (La Guitarra and San Rafael) from 15 to 4 base on the following info (should I expect an attack real soon? LOL!!):

If your changes are well documented and explained, hopefully they won't be reversed! Let us know...one recent Forum post claims a new 5000tpd leach in addition to the 340tpd mill and 143M ounces of inferred Ag. You're only looking at the 340tpd mill

With the "soft launch" of Miningpedia, there should be more people making edits..some that make sense and some that won't be defensible


Last edited by on Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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EarthMonkey



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PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:13 pm

It was correct that GGC is working on a feasibility study for the construction of a heap leach and conventional milling processing plant with a combined capacity totalling 5,000 tonnes per day for annualized capacity of 1.8 million tonnes of ore. This FS is expected to be out by 1st qtr of 2008 Here is the link of the doc -->


http://www.gencoresources.com/2007%20Releases/July%2018%20'07-%20Creston%20Update.pdf

My change on P/E from 15 to 4 applied to La Guitarra and San Rafael only (until they have a positive feasibility study report, I think I will stick to the 340tpd mill capacity for these 2 mine sites as the company stated in the same report that the mine life is only 4.4 years).

For Creston project, Shelby assigned 15 to the forward P/E which I think is way too high as the FS is not yet available. I didnt change the forward P/E data.

For the 80% recovery rate, if converative recovery numbers were used to enter data in MP for other companies, then, the same same conservative approach should apply to GGC. So, I changed it from 84% to 80% base on a more recent news release than the one Shelby used.
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EarthMonkey



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PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:40 pm

Besides, why is the forward P/E be 15 when the ore is in the least probable economic category (inferred resource)?

I think assigning a forward P/E of 5 to this company until the creston resource is upgraded to at least measured and indicated category would be more appropriate. It is just my opinion.
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studbkr



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PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:44 pm

Yes, I also noted aggressive use of "inferred resources" I believe the Miningpedia Formula heavily discounts the quantity of "inferred", but my examining that was along time ago
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silversleuth



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Registration date : 2007-07-21

PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:24 pm

If you are considering zinc, you might want to take a look at Strategic Acquisition Corp. (SRZ.TO), scheduled for production in 08. It's a fairly new issue but management has an outstanding track record. It will also be producing REEs as well. Based in Tennessee with a tight share structure, I think it offers a much better value than BN.V. The fundamentals for zinc couldn't be better. I could go on but I think you get the picture. Razz
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EarthMonkey



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Registration date : 2007-05-24

PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:27 pm

As far as I know the equation to aggregate all resources did not change since March 2007. You can refer back to the Mininpedia.com is now live post #104 and #128. The equation to calculate Total resources is like this:

$resources = $reserves + 0.9 * $indicated + 0.5 * $inferred;
if( $resources == 0 ) $resources = 0.3 * $historic;


So, applying a forward P/E of 15 and discounted it by 50% (inferred resources), you still get a forward P/E of 7.5.

7.5 is high number when:
The company do not know the cash cost, dilution nor the capex yet.

Shelby, however, made estimates base on ORM.V FS and used 80% of ORMs cash cost, 20% dilution factor (instead of 29% for ORM) and 1/2 of ORM capex requirement. He may be right on his guessimates. But then who knows?

This is all a guessing game. If your guesses are right and all your equations are correct, perhaps this may turn out to be a possible 10, 100, 1000 bagger stock that Shelby believes.

Should we believe what Shelby think should happen? I guess if you own it, you should. I dont own it yet as I need more convincing information.
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James Junkin



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Localisation : Calgary, Alberta
Registration date : 2008-06-24

PostSubject: Re: Blue Note Mining (BN.V)   Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:29 am

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnw/080922/e_bluenote_caribou.html?.v=1

Quote :
Eight holes drilled into Lens 3 on Levels 5 (480m) and 6 (560m) and Lens 2 on Level 5 have successfully delineated additional resources. The best hole intersecting Lens 3 returned 9.23% Zn, 3.75% Pb and 98.75 gpt Ag over 3.26 meters (UGX-07-04).
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